Vaccines are moving the needle...

[island911]

Why did I get Covid?

[island911]

Did you know that the least generous study says that natural immunity is 13x better than any of the vaccines?

Now go git yer booster subscription service.

[Sooner or later]

The following is highly simplified and should only be used as an example. Natural immunity does play a significant part, lower in early part of spread and more later on. I have not attempted to account for the natural immunity. It only shows the impact of vaccines and social distancing on the various viruses and their varying R0 values.

Flu R2. 50% effective vaccine in 50% of population. No social distancing. Effective R0 at R1.5
1/1.5/2.3/3.5/5.3/8/12/18 (continues to spread)

Flu R2 50% effective vaccine in 50% of population so same R1.5 Social distancing, Virtual school.. Hygiene. Far less air traffic. Limited attendance concerts/sporting events. Masking. Restaurants seating/takeout. Etc. Effective R0 drops slightly more than 1/3 from R1.5 to R0.9.
1/0.9/0.81/0.73/0.66/0.59/0.53/0.48 (never gets a foothold, dies out)

Alpha variant R3. No vaccine. Same social distancing etc. Effective R0 drops the same 1/3 to R2.
1/2/4/8/16/32/64/128 (exponential growth)

Alpha variant at R3. Social distancing etc to an effective R2 (same 1/3 drop) Highly effective vaccine against Alpha that eventually reaches 50% of population. Effective R0 at R1 and lower.
1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1 ( no growth)

Delta variant at R5. Social distancing etc (same 1/3 drop) to an effective R3.4. Far less effective vaccine against variant with 50% of population vaccinated cuts it by a quarter (50-%effective in 50% of population). Effective R2.6
1/2.6/6.7/17.4/45/117/304/790 (exponential growth)

Flu spreads with vaccine and no social programs.
Flu dies out with vaccinations and social programs. Never had initial foothold in Fall of 2020.
Alpha continues to spread without vaccines even though social programs in place, though at a lower pace.
Alpha slowly dies out with effective vaccine and social programs.
Delta continues to spread easily with less effective vaccine and social programs.

Who knows what the flu season will be like this year. There should be far less natural immunity since we had no flu season last year. The vaccine is always a crap shoot and will be even more so this year since we have so little data from last year to work with. Also, much of the social distancing is no longer in place. My guess is an above avg year. And yes, I received my super-duper old folks vaccine this year.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

Did you know that the least generous study says that natural immunity is 13x better than any of the vaccines?

Now go git yer booster subscription service.

Far more in the study.

“The differences are huge,” says Thĺlin, although she cautions that the numbers for infections and other events analyzed for the comparisons were “small.” For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the same analysis was based on just 238 infections in the vaccinated population, less than 1.5% of the more than 16,000 people, versus 19 reinfections among a similar number of people who once had SARS-CoV-2.

The study demonstrates the power of the human immune system, but infectious disease experts emphasized that this vaccine and others for COVID-19 nonetheless remain highly protective against severe disease and death. And they caution that intentional infection among unvaccinated people would be extremely risky. “What we don’t want people to say is: ‘All right, I should go out and get infected, I should have an infection party,’” says Michel Nussenzweig, an immunologist at Rockefeller University who researches the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and was not involved in the study. “Because somebody could die.”

The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.

Still, Thĺlin and other researchers stress that deliberate infection among unvaccinated people would put them at significant risk of severe disease and death, or the lingering, significant symptoms of what has been dubbed Long Covid. The study shows the benefits of natural immunity, but “doesn’t take into account what this virus does to the body to get to that point,” says Marion Pepper, an immunologist at the University of Washington, Seattle. COVID-19 has already killed more than 4 million people worldwide and there are concerns that Delta and other SARS-CoV-2 variants are deadlier than the original virus.

https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

[john70t]

Vaccine Acquired Immune Deficiency disorder (aka VAIDS), if they don't get blood clots, pericarditis, Bells Palsy, miscarriages, or other effects first.

Japan rejected 160k Phizer doses which contained an "un-approved" substance.
Most likely a graphene byproduct which penetrates the brain barrier.

Just wait for the aftermath. An entire nation poisoned like the old European plague-era city wells.

Privatized hospital stocks are a worthy investment before they actually fill up for real.
Bbbbaby you ain't seen nothing yet.

[javadog]

Get ready for your booster shots. The definition of “fully vaccinated” is most likely going to be changed. Expect that if you wish to remain on the fully vaccinated list, you’ll need to get booster shots when the government tells you to.

I think I told you so, in the past.

It ain’t about stopping Covid.

[BK911]

We have already been told that in order to maintain employment the jab and all boosters are required per cdc guidelines. And we have all seen these requirements change.

[javadog]

You’re not gonna like this graph:

[javadog]

This is also bad news and probably explains that last graph:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/john-h-abeles-md-medvestgroup-northleapartners_mass-vaccination-may-permanently-attenuate-activity-6857291931475578881-O4Ba

[hbueno]

Originally Posted by javadog

You’re not gonna like this graph:

Deeper discussion of why this is inaccurate:
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1436016896617467904?s=20

[javadog]

Originally Posted by hbueno

Deeper discussion of why this is inaccurate:
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1436016896617467904?s=20

Nothing definite there, quite a few maybes or could be’s.

Lots of things could explain it and we don’t know what the right answer is yet.

If it turns out the vaccines are a problem, then you’re all ****ed. There’s no turning back. We need to pause this vaccination campaign until we actually have some real answers.

[porsche4life]

Originally Posted by javadog

Nothing definite there, quite a few maybes or could be’s.

Lots of things could explain it and we don’t know what the right answer is yet.

If it turns out the vaccines are a problem, then you’re all ****ed. There’s no turning back. We need to pause this vaccination campaign until we actually have some real answers.

As opposed to the virus which we ready know has plenty of long term affects. Why are you more scared of something that someone on the internet told you might happen, than something that data is already showing to happen consistently.


Im sorry, but pausing the vaccines and letting a few hundred thousand more people die, and a few million more people end up with long covid seems like an idiotic answer. Hundreds of millions of people have been vaccinated globally, some of them for almost a year already. If there were major issues, we’d have seen them by now, and I mean actually have hard evidence of issues. Not the smoke and mirrors “evidence” of these sites you keep dragging up.

[javadog]

Originally Posted by porsche4life

As opposed to the virus which we ready know has plenty of long term affects. Why are you more scared of something that someone on the internet told you might happen, than something that data is already showing to happen consistently.


Im sorry, but pausing the vaccines and letting a few hundred thousand more people die, and a few million more people end up with long covid seems like an idiotic answer. Hundreds of millions of people have been vaccinated globally, some of them for almost a year already. If there were major issues, we’d have seen them by now, and I mean actually have hard evidence of issues. Not the smoke and mirrors “evidence” of these sites you keep dragging up.

Nothing personal, Sid, but you might want to look a little harder. There’s some real data out there, it’s not smoke and mirrors like you claim.

[Sooner or later]

The rest of the story, Below is the link that wasn't supplied.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

[javadog]

OK, Paul Harvey, perhaps you could take a moment and explain to the riffraff here the concept of original antigenic sin.

[javadog]

This report*:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

contains this little nugget:



It’s that very last sentence that concerns me.

* Link provided to satisfy the requirements of the link police.

[pmax]

That "unlinked" group is one set of resilient buggas !

[john70t]

The Science (tm) is not actually science without full and accurate data.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2021/10/20/osha-instructs-federal-agencies-not-to-record-covid-vaccine-side-effects-n2597674
OSHA Instructs Federal Agencies Not to Record Adverse Reactions to COVID Vaccine

scrubbing that thing bleachybit clean
like with a clothe

[Rtrorkt]

guessin' y'all would have turned down the polio vaccine, small pox, rubella and others that have proved over time to be effective.

But I am sure you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express recently which makes you a genius and worthy of your advice to humbler folk like me.

Just be selfish, seems to go with the territory these days. Darwin seems to be making in roads in the red states. Yahoo.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Rtrorkt

guessin' y'all would have turned down the polio vaccine, small pox, rubella and others that have proved over time to be effective.

But I am sure you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express recently which makes you a genius and worthy of your advice to humbler folk like me.

Just be selfish, seems to go with the territory these days. Darwin seems to be making in roads in the red states. Yahoo.

Have these "proved over time to be effective" ?

Have these proven, over time, to be safe?

I certainly hope that John70T is wrong about Vaccine Acquired Immune Deficiency disorder (aka VAIDS),

Did you get yer 4-month booster?