when will the bubble pop ?

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

It is really very easy. When the American housing market is good classic cars, collectables and high end watches sell like hot cakes.When the housing market cools then all prices go down. Way down. So just watch Zillow from time to time. While not perfect it will give you an idea of how things are going. Our San Diego finance guy on TV says everything points to a great Summer for Americans buying homes. So I would think it is a great time to sell your classic if you need to. Everything hooks onto home sales. Always.

Um, what?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-28/yellen-concerned-by-housing-slowdown-she-has-scant-power-to-cure.html

The housing market has been a large economic concern in recent months with people still lacking the equity to get out of the homes they bought in 2003 - 2006, difficulty obtaining financing, and buyers still wary of the market as a whole (read: lagging demand). It's a gross and erroneous oversimplification to call home sales the sole indicator of luxury good pricing.

[darmahman]

You guys sound like you are trading stocks. I bought mine to drive. I don't give a rat's ass about what the "market", any market, is doing. I'm driving!

[pegasus9]

^^^ this!

[Augustus]

^^^ this!

Is priceless!!

[techweenie]

You guys sound like you are trading stocks. I bought mine to drive. I don't give a rat's ass about what the "market", any market, is doing. I'm driving!<img src="http://forums.pelicanparts.com/ultimate/smile.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Smilie" class="inlineimg">

Thats a lovely sentiment. But the reason any sensible person cares about market values is that they carry insurance.

I have bumped valuation of my longhoods twice in the past 18 months. In the case of a catastrophic loss, I don't want to be unable to replace them

[Nick Triesch]

darmahman, I'm sorry, you must be in the wrong thread area. This area is for marketplace discussions.

[Nick Triesch]

I'm sorry MrBonus. I live in Southern Cal. A different market here. Most regular homes up almost $100,000 in less than a year. The market is very hot. Many folks here have a lot of equity even if they bought two years ago. But ordinary homes are $400,000+. It's called the sun tax!!

[darmahman]

Screwed up again! Oh well its my birthday so you have to be nice!

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

darmahman, I'm sorry, you must be in the wrong thread area. This area is for marketplace discussions.

[Augustus]

^^^ Happy Birthday!

[pmax]

Originally Posted by darmahman

I'm driving!

Is there a dedicated thread for that ?

[darmahman]

Oh God no - Investing is the new word in the porsche 911 world...

Originally Posted by pmax

Is there a dedicated thread for that ?

[jturbo3.6]

I personally don't think it's a bubble.
just time for the real price.

[ThomasVDA]

Hi all!

A little story from the "other side" of vintage Porsche ownership! Not that it matters, but to give some perspective to all of the "bubble-or-not" posts:

10 years ago I was the proud owner of a 1965 Polo Red 912. Nardi steering wheel, fog lights, rear window wiper, 3 clocks and four gears. Matching numbers and lots of 356 trim.

I bought it for 11.000 euros. It was either that or a tangerine 1969 911T coupe with airco for 13.000 euros. Back then the euro was strong compared to dollar, and a lot of California cars made the trip back to Europe. Condition 2 car, verging on condition 1, at the time. For your info: I didn't care about the car being a 1965. Didn't care about it being a matching numbers. Didn't care about pristine paint. All I cared about was that the body was hard and rust-free, and the engine still had 89 of the original 90 horsepower. Yeehaaaa!

I sold my 912 when my (then) girlfriend wanted to go back to college, which her ******* parents didn't want to pay for. Sold it for 11.000 euro after having it for three years, because there were some rust issues that needed to be taken care of. Condition 2 at that time.

The Porsche scene was really cool back then: rich banker types bought Boxsters, Cayennes and the latest Carrera 4S cars, and the less wealthy like me drove their 912s and 911s. Hard! I stopped driving like a madmen after doing a 720 on the freeway :-) As we said in our aircoolers club: "You've got people with money and people with taste".

I sold my 912 back to the previous owner, with a gentleman's agreement to buy it back when I got some money in my hands again. Then I started my own company, then I bought a crappy house that needed remodeling. As most of you will probably know, it's madness to convince the misses that a classic Porsche is a necessary purchase when you still don't have a bathroom installed. So I held out on buying the 912 back until I had done some more sensible things.

Now I have some money again, for the first time in years. More than before, actually. I could spend 20.000 on a nice 912 now, probably, provided I wouldn't run into unforeseen issues regarding rust or engine. Unfortunately 912 prices in Belgium are starting around 25.000 for non matching ones, with busted gearboxes or carburators. A 1965 one like mine starts at 40.000, up to 60.000. That's in euros!!! Naturally the gentleman's agreement to buy the car back didn't hold up once rapid appreciation began...

In the meantime I am confronted with all sorts of nitwits and rich kids driving showroom condition 911s and 912s around the posh part of town. When I talk to them and say it's weird that their SWB car has a later era clocks, they don't know what I'm talking about. Rich clients jump aboard and order their longhoods to spec (yes: they effectively "order" their cars in this and that color, with this color of leather and these options and have 'em restored this way).

I can not speak for other parts of the world, but let me tell you: very few of the recent buyers I see overhere have a true and genuine love for their cars. Most have one because it is the latest fad in the fancy beachtown resorts, and because intrest rates are so low that they have money to burn. It doesn't hurt that prices rise so fast, so a lot of people buy up 911s and 912s just because they yield a higher return than banks can give at the moment. Cars get flipped and sellers put ridiculous prices now and then, just to test the waters. And boy are some people uninformed. Some of my clients are fairly wealthy and have jumped into the longhood waters recently. These guys have no clue whatsover about Stoddard or Pelicanparts - and they are basically being ripped off by mechanics telling them that their headlights lenses are super-rare and not being produced anymore. I would say "not my problem". A fool and his money etc... But it's the same guys that then proceed to calculate this into their asking prices when they flip it.

Is it a bubble? Noone can tell. But it sure is a shame...

And now I'm one those guys that scavenges the internet forums for opinions about bubbles, for one reason: the very very very superficial hope that it is in part a bubble and speculation. Because that is probably the only scenario in which enthousiasts like me can ever dream of owning a classic Porsche ever again. Mind you: I'm realistically pessimistic. All of those "rich-kid banker types" (no offense to bankers in general, but you know what I mean) have plenty of cash, and no reason nor need to sell it for less than they paid for it - and a lot of 'em have paid crazy speculative prices.

My point being: have some mercy on the people starting and following bubble topics. Yes, you are 100 percent right: people should stop whining and just drive the damn things. Life is too short, and things like a roof over your head, good health and friends and loved ones are waaaaay more important. But some of us people babbling about bubbling are actually genuine lovers of aircooled history who would love nothing more than to just drive the damn thing again instead of talking about the prices.

Cheers - here's to hoping I'll find a nice 912 driver one day!

Best,
Thomas

[Nick Triesch]

Two things,.....I notice that a lot of long time air cooled owners are now selling out because their cars are worth so much. To me this is sad because like a Southern California house once it is gone it is very hard to go back. A ton of people I know have sold their California home for $600,000 plus and move to a different state. But it is real hard to come back to California and buy again. Also, it seems to me that the sale of really nice expensive items including old Porsche cars reflects on the housing market. You may have noticed that the stock market is on fire. Homes are again selling in a few days for more than the asking price. In San Diego, one of our very high end watch shops told me that expensive watches ($5000-$100,000 really reflect the market. When the market goes south so do watch sales. Classic cars are the same. I don't think it is a bubble, just the market. Nick

[Nick Triesch]

One more thing to prove my point, I owned a nice 356B for 10 years. I sold it in 1999 for about $9000. Today it would cost over $50,000 for me to find and buy the same car.

[ThomasVDA]

Yup... Too bad. The only upside is that some otherwise end-of-life cars have been resurrected - and that some genuine enthousiasts are rewarded financially for taking good care of their cars.

[KNS]

Interesting viewpoint from ThomasVDA and sad if that's the way things are across the pond. I can understand the flashy banker/lots of cash-to-spend types who buy a new 991 or Cayenne Turbo. But if they're snapping up the older cars simply to be seen in then that is really shutting out the genuine enthusiasts who have followed the mark for years or even decades.

I wanted a 911 badly when I was kid growing up in the '70s and learned to drive in the '80s. I watched them race in WEC on ESPN and saw them race 962s at Riverside in '86 and '87. My older brother owning a couple of 914s also had an impact on me. I guess I have to feel very fortunate to have owned the cars that I have because I don't see me ever buying another air cooled car with the way the market is now.

[ThomasVDA]

As a side note: one of our local classic Porsche sellers has a page called "Investing in classic cars" that reads "Many people believe that a classic car is only a sound investment when you restore it. However, this is not true! You can just as well make a good investment on an unrestored car just by putting it in dry storage and leaving it like that."

That's like saying your beautiful wife will stay that way for longer if you don't make love to her!!! ^_^

[Westy]

Originally Posted by techweenie

The Tulip Mania people love to refer to wasn't about the price of tulip bulbs. It was about tulip bulb futures -- an extrinsic value.

What a phenomenal historical lesson. Everyone who cares about finances should watch that show. The history channel plays it every now and then.

Back on track, I'm pleased with the valuation increases, because as soon as my 81 Targa gets back from smog (fingers crossed), I'm putting it up for sale and moving on. If it's a bubble, I hope it floats around a while.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

I'm sorry MrBonus. I live in Southern Cal. A different market here. Most regular homes up almost $100,000 in less than a year. The market is very hot. Many folks here have a lot of equity even if they bought two years ago. But ordinary homes are $400,000+. It's called the sun tax!!

Colorado is smoking hot too.