is there anyone else that believes this flu to be overnblown?

[nynor]

just saying. i could certainly be wrong, but hope that i am not.

[mattdavis11]

You are not alone. I'm fairly certain that I've already had it and have bucked it. Two of my amigos felt flu'ish today, but it's hard to tell if they were really sick from my point of view. Outside of having high blood pressure for a brief period 4 years ago, I haven't been to a doctor in over ten years. YMMV. Wash your hands.

[VINMAN]

Prime example of media driven hysteria.

[Embraer]

Fear Mongering. ...Just like how Biden made a public statement "urging" people not to fly on our airlines due to the pig fever. Talk about hurting one of our biggest industries by speaking without thinking.

[Joe Bob]

The local rag reported that the flu may not have any staying power.....hype then the old under the fold, my bad, report.....typical....

[schamp]

Yes I think its being hyped but here in Georgia I am hearing talk about closing the schools for 12 weeks. We have 1 reported, tested, case so far. Lady came from Mexico to a wedding in LaGrange, Ga. She had it. If they close the schools guess where the kids go. Straight to the malls. They might want to rethink that one.

[Joe Bob]

My wife works at an after school, state funded facility for high risk students. The % of students that have contact with the original outbreak is VERY high.

Wonder who's gonna pay MY insurance bill when she gets it from an illegal that gets free health care at the ER......kinda makes ya think.

[Rick Lee]

My experience with the media is that they often know nothing at all about the issues they cover, even simple issues. And this is a somewhat complex issue. So you can forget all informed reporting. I'm far more worried about dying on my motorcycle than getting any kind of sick.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Embraer

Fear Mongering. ...Just like how Biden made a public statement "urging" people not to fly on our airlines due to the pig fever. Talk about hurting one of our biggest industries by speaking without thinking.

Yep. And what happens if we ever have a REAL epidemic?

[Joe Bob]

Biden...here's to hoping that nothing ever happens to Obama....we'd have Biden as President. What an idjut.....

[jyl]

I started tracking and graphing the number of confirmed US swine flu cases. Only a week of data points, but so far it is following an exponential growth curve. If it continues to follow current curve, i.e. if it doesn't slow down and we can't make it slow down through handwashing etc, then progression in US should be 1,000s of cases in a week, 10,000's in a couple weeks, etc.

In a month, the curve hits millions of cases, and in a couple months, tens of millions. That level of cases might not happen this year, after all we are close to summer, when flu usually stops. But maybe it happens next year. The 1918 flu pandemic hit in three successive years, the first one was milder, the second one was severe.

Per each 1MM cases, how many deaths? If same fatality rate as seasonal flu (<0.1%), then several hundred deaths. Maybe rate will be lower, since every case will be treated aggressively. Maybe rate will be higher, as has been in Mexico.

Hopefully, it will be "lower". But even if that is so, if and when the case count does get to tens of millions, that is potentially a meaningful number of deaths. So, I think it is worth paying attention to this flu, learning how to detect it, slow it down and how to best treat it, developing a vaccine.

I don't actually know how frenzied the media is getting, since I don't watch much TV. Think I've watched an hour of TV in the past 3 weeks.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Yes, completely overblown.

Ratings (and consequently advertising sales) are evidently down for our "journalists" in the news agencies.

Yes, I do think eventually the human race is in for a nasty pandemic that will wipe out a good number of people - we are far too smug with our over-reliance on technologies we don't fully understand and our hubris will eventually catch up with us in a bad way. Mother Nature always wins. We can't keep kicking the crap out of this planet and overpopulating it, living in congested slum-like cities in perpetuity. Eventually something will come along to rein in human impact. This is only a wake-up call, which naturally nobody will heed.

I don't bother with the "news" outlets anymore other than the BBC. They're all complete and utter garbage, sensationalism and fear-mongering ratings whores. I doubt there's enough bona fide integrity in that entire industry to match that of a used car salesman between the lot of them. It's THAT disgusting as of late.

[nostatic]

I don't watch TV news except for rare times when I can't avoid it (like in airports these days). I was sadly amused at what a bad joke it is. Shrill hyperbole with no substance. I was happy to get on the plane and settle into an uncomfortable economy seat for 5 hours rather than have that claptrap going on and on...

I read google news, and can pick and choose multiple sources for the same story to get some balance. TV news? forget it...

[jyl]

Agree. Network TV news is terrible. It is almost worse than no news at all. Alarming that most of the country still gets their news from network TV.

I get my news from NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, Economist, Google news with it's multiple sources, and a few thoughtful blogs. CNN/CNBC only when there is a "breaking" story and you simply want the latest numbers. BBC/NPR are the best of the radio sources.

Disadvantage - this means a lot of time in front of the computer. I'm thinking about getting a Kindle.

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by jyl

I started tracking and graphing the number of confirmed US swine flu cases. Only a week of data points, but so far it is following an exponential growth curve. If it continues to follow current curve, i.e. if it doesn't slow down and we can't make it slow down through handwashing etc, then progression in US should be 1,000s of cases in a week, 10,000's in a couple weeks, etc.

In a month, the curve hits millions of cases, and in a couple months, tens of millions. That level of cases might not happen this year, after all we are close to summer, when flu usually stops. But maybe it happens next year. The 1918 flu pandemic hit in three successive years, the first one was milder, the second one was severe.

Per each 1MM cases, how many deaths? If same fatality rate as seasonal flu (<0.1%), then several hundred deaths. Maybe rate will be lower, since every case will be treated aggressively. Maybe rate will be higher, as has been in Mexico.

Hopefully, it will be "lower". But even if that is so, if and when the case count does get to tens of millions, that is potentially a meaningful number of deaths. So, I think it is worth paying attention to this flu, learning how to detect it, slow it down and how to best treat it, developing a vaccine.

I don't actually know how frenzied the media is getting, since I don't watch much TV. Think I've watched an hour of TV in the past 3 weeks.

there are several scenario's to the "spreading"...

Either these new confirmed cases are new infections, or old ones that just got confirmed...If it's the latter, no biggie, if it's the former, then there might be something to worry about.

So the real question is, how well does it spread outside Mexico.. There have been human to human cases outside Mexico, so far not many, but it's only been a week since the story went public, so it's a bit soon to tell.
It also applies to the mortality outside Mexico.. same thing, too soon to tell.


The second part to worry about, is the ability to mutate.. Now it's not resistant to Tamiflu and Relenza.. and there's plenty of that to go around because of the Bird Flu fear from the last years...

But if the strain mutates, it might become fully resistant.. again, only time will tell
Might be interesting to see how the thing goes about in Asia, Asia has plenty of things that might make it a perfect breeding ground for a flu mutation... What if the current strain makes it to North Korea... with it's sub standard world socio economics and medical care?

At this point, i keep an eye out for it, i don't change my life style, i'm not going to stop shaking hands with anyone just yet..

[Milu]

[JavaBrewer]

I just learned that one of our two local High Schools just shut down for 2 weeks cause one student was diagnosed with the flu.

[RWebb]

what DOES "overblown" mean?

Public Health professional and epidemiologists have been concerned about a return tof a highly virulent flu strain for a few years now, partly because of some new research. Other issues are that:
- many drugs are now ineffective (due to [1] their use in concentrated animal feeding operations to enhance meat gains quickly, and [2] patients demanding quick shot type cures for every sniffle and headache they get)
- human popn's are much larger now and tightly coupled via air travel -- this was not the case in 1918 when a flu virus killed millions - guess what could happen now...

Most recent report I saw was that this flu is may not be as virulent as was first thought.

We will not know how bad it rally is until this winter. It will take that long to travel all over the world, thru humans, pigs, and birds, and no doubt other mammals. That will also give it time to mutate as it travels. [these viruses are highly mutable - that is what people are talking about if you hear them say "genetically unstable"].

It is far better to have an overly proactive response to something with this level of potential harm, than to have a response that is too weak. If nothing else, this will serve as a test run for an organized response when something worse comes along. And trust me, no matter how bad this gets... there WILL be something much much worse in the future.

So, stay tuned, Sports Fans...

[mattdavis11]

This was a test run on the acceptance level of a nationalized health care plan. Judging from the number of people I've seen with their hair on fire, Washington has a green light to get it done. People not being able to set aside their emotions to make rational decisions is going to cost us an arm and a leg down the road.

[RWebb]

so, you're saying that the Bush administration introduced a pathogen so that the next Pres. would be able to put in a "nationalized health care plan"?

now, that IS rich!