Korea

[Heel n Toe]

I know what they can do because of the proximity... I just wonder if they would do that if one of their ships was taken out in response. One ship.

[aap1966]

Originally Posted by Heel n Toe

I know what they can do because of the proximity... I just wonder if they would do that if one of their ships was taken out in response. One ship.

Assume a 99% chance of no response, would you risk a 1% chance of losing your capital city?

This thread should be moved to PARF and we can "war game" the scenario.

Here's my $0.02:-
(Remember the Korean war never ended, there's just a ceasefire)
South sinks DPRK vessel.
DPRK declares open naval war, losses on both sides, including Southern civilian.
America and China urge restraint. America makes it clear that it will not support any "disproportionate" response by the South. China mobilises along the DPRK border (to prevent 23 million refugees flooding into China).
South Korean navy cannot keep sealanes safe enough that maritime insurers will allow commercial shipping to serve the South. Southern economic crisis, exacerbated by refugees flooding South from Seoul. Martial law. DPRK openly threatens American naval vessels, so American naval vessels withdrawn.
Southern economic collapse.
South re-establishes truce with DPRK.
Post script: Unnerved by lack of American military support, South Korea develops its own nuclear deterrent. Japan watches events on the Korean Peninsula and concludes that American bases do not guarentee security. Popular uprising against the bases, bases closed. New Japanese constitution, Japanese nuclear deterrent.

[island_dude]

I agree that this really will need to move to PARF. Do you seriously feel that we would run from a direct threat that that? We have the means to wipe them off the earth and Obama is just as likely as any other president to threaten or even use that force. We have troops in SK for a reason and such a reason is starting to present itself. I would not overstate the power of NK's abilities. The current military has a large number of troops who were greatly weakened by the last big famine.

I would not go out of my way to start something, but we won't run from a provocation like that.

Originally Posted by aap1966

Assume a 99% chance of no response, would you risk a 1% chance of losing your capital city?

This thread should be moved to PARF and we can "war game" the scenario.

Here's my $0.02:
(Remember the Korean war never ended, there's just a ceasefire)
South sinks DPRK vessel.
DPRK declares open naval war, losses on both sides, including Southern civilian.
America and China urge restraint. America makes it clear that it will not support any "disproportionate" response by the South. China mobilises along the DPRK border (to prevent 23 million refugees flooding into China).
South Korean navy cannot keep sealanes safe enough that maritime insurers will allow commercial shipping to serve the South. Southern economic crisis, exacerbated by refugees flooding South from Seoul. Martial law. DPRK openly threatens American naval vessels, so American naval vessels withdrawn.
Southern economic collapse.
South re-establishes truce with DPRK.
Post script: Unnerved by lack of American military support, South Korea develops its own nuclear deterrent. Japan watches events on the Korean Peninsula and concludes that American bases do not guarentee security. Popular uprising against the bases, bases closed. New Japanese constitution, Japanese nuclear deterrent.

[tabs]

BO will do ANYTHING including getting down on his knees to make sure that NK & SK don't go to war. It is a war he CAN NOT AFFORD. He has 2 already going, a nation in debt up to its eyeballs with a good chunk going to Chunking..

BO has no choice but tosupport SK militarily...he is in a box...He has guarntees to the worlds 2ND largest economy and most stalwart ally....Japan. Japn would take a very dim view of America chickening out in SK, as their security is directly affected. . Japan and China are neck and neck as to who is holding more US debt.

[Jim Richards]

Wow, how the eff did I get transported to the PARF sewer?

[aap1966]

Wow, how the eff did I get transported to the PARF sewer?

Well, the response to an act of war IS a political decision. Anyway, this is still a civil discussion compared to most PARF threads.

[Jim Richards]

But this isn't PARF.

[jyl]

This administration's foreign policy is fairly conventional. Who escalated the Afghanistan war?

The US has 30K troops in SK and pre-positioned equipment for many more. They will be among the first casualties. And the mutual defense commitment in SK is almost as old as NATO, breach that and there goes your military influence globally. No president other than a radical isolationist would fail to respond, and Obama is not that.

I actually think a war in Korea would escalate to nuclear when NK starts losing. Once NK fires the first nuclear missile, even if just a medium range one aimed at a purely military target in SK (how likely is that?) the game theory says that the US has to strike NK with nuclear weapons, massively (no eye for an eye stuff). Neither China nor Russia would get involved.

[Jim Richards]

John, I think your analysis of war in the Korean peninsula is spot on.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I'm not aware that NK has successfully tested a nuclear weapon yet - just a fizzled "bust" of an attempt that had pitifully low yield and amounted to little more than a big conventional explosion and a bunch of radioactive mess over a few hundred yards.

[Rick Lee]

I don't know that NK would retaliate if SK took out one of their naval vessels. NK's sole mission in life is regime survival. That's the highest goal they could ever achieve. They know they cannot win a real war with SK, probably not even if the US stayed out of it. So it's in their best interests to keep a real war from breaking out.

Until now their bad behavior has only ever been rewarded, so we should expect more of it. But I don't think they're ready to start a war they have no chance of winning.

[Rikao4]

we will do nothing...
we can't even speak to harshly..
other than..
bad boy,bad boy sit...sit..sit PLEASE..
and Iran will soon start this sort of stuff..
and we will do nothing..
truly a case of the little dogs telling the Rott. of the world..
go home & stay there..

Rika

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I'm not aware that NK has successfully tested a nuclear weapon yet - just a fizzled "bust" of an attempt that had pitifully low yield and amounted to little more than a big conventional explosion and a bunch of radioactive mess over a few hundred yards.

They have fizzled 2. While a 6% yield on a Pu bomb is bad, 6% of 20 kt is still 1.2kt, or 2,400,000 lbs of TNT.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Still enough to kill a lotta people I guess, so yes the threat is real.

I concur with the above then - yes, they have nukes (bad nukes, but nukes) and if they use them, it will require a full retaliatory strike probably within minutes of U.S. nuclear cruise missiles.

Yes, I do think they're that reckless/crazy/stupid.

[Rick Lee]

They know we have SLBM's within a few minutes flight time from their capital. I don't want to sound like I suffer from the rational man syndrome, but I don't think Kim is crazy at all. He has been conditioned by many years of appeasement and has no reason not to think more bad behavior won't bring him more rewards. But nukes? No, that spells instant end of regime and that's the only thing that matters to him.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by Heel n Toe

I know what they can do because of the proximity... I just wonder if they would do that if one of their ships was taken out in response. One ship.

It's an enormous risk to take, risking 100,000 dead (at least) just to sink one ship.

Me? I would evacuate Seoul entirely, and raze the North from stem to stern.

Originally Posted by island_dude

I agree that this really will need to move to PARF. Do you seriously feel that we would run from a direct threat that that? We have the means to wipe them off the earth and Obama is just as likely as any other president to threaten or even use that force. We have troops in SK for a reason and such a reason is starting to present itself. I would not overstate the power of NK's abilities. The current military has a large number of troops who were greatly weakened by the last big famine.

I would not go out of my way to start something, but we won't run from a provocation like that.

We have been running from direct DPRK provocations for decades.

Ever heard of the USS Pueblo?

DPRK does not need nukes at all to kill hundreds of thousands of civvies in Seoul. They have 10,000 artillery pieces in dug in dispersed positions well within range of the city for that.

[scottmandue]

Dunno but I thought SK is the little brother to NK... as in doesn't NK have way more money and troops than SK?

And even if they don't isn't NK backed by China? Can you say deep pockets?

[m21sniper]

DPRK is utterly broke because their entire economy goes into supporting the regime and the military.

We would thrash them in an all out war, but it would take us -weeks- to silence all the guns within range of Seoul.

I will leave it to your imagination to decide how much damage 10,000 artillery pieces can do to a populated city in even an hours time.

[jyl]

China helps NK because their influence over NK gives them additional chips to play in the diplomatic game w/ the US and others. I suspect the prospect of refugees crossing the river is secondary.

If NK starts hostilities, NK will immediately become a liability for China, and China will apply all the pressure it can bear on NK to stand down. If hostilities escalate to war, with artillery shells landing in Seoul and US/ROK troops in combat, China will back away from NK as fast as it can run, because NK will then be an enormous liability for China.

China is remarkably rational and logical in its foreign policy, and its primary goal is economic growth. A major war on the Korean peninsula which crashes the Asian economy, sends commodity prices soaring and trade tumbling, and triggers re-arming across Asia as well as a renewed desire for the US military umbrella, will damage the Chinese economy to the tune of trillions of dollars. Far more than NK is worth to China.

There won't be PLA divisions pouring across the border this time. Geopolitical stability and mutually profitable trade with the West is China's lifeblood.

Incidentally, don't overlook the SK military. It is one of the world's largest and they have been preparing for a war with NK for decades. Some people say the current generation of South Koreans have gone soft, but some say that about the current generation of Americans too, and our soldiers are not softies. In Vietnam the ROK's reputation was fearsome. You can imagine how they would fight knowing that their families were being bombarded in Seoul.

[Rick Lee]

Isn't Seoul about the same size as NYC? There's no way to evacuate that place. It's the only card NK has. Hold that city hostage by artillery fire.

I've been to a few press conferences by NK defectors, one a high ranking officer and the others by regular folks. If 1% of the stories they tell are true, then NK is just an unimagineable penal colony hell hole.