All true and as electric cars become more common gasoline should become cheaper.

Then we have to figure out how to tax the electric cars for using the road as there will be less income from taxes on a gallon of gasoline as there is less used.

I am not saying that as a dis on electric, but our legislators are very short sighted and won't think of it until we are in crisis mode again.

Tax EV? LOL!
We are giving them money.
Take away the tax incentive and tax them to cover the road usage and the EV fairytale goes down the tubes.

That is not going to happen. There will not be manufacturing capacity to achieve it. Not for motors, not for batteries, not for battery packs.

Norway is already shifting towards EV taxation for high end models.

But mostly for the electrical generating capacity of the country. Many part of the nation just squeak by every summer when the AC gets cranked up. Add the load of making millions more cars drive millions of miles, the grid will collapse. We need to start building new generating plants. Almost everyone is NIMBY!

The grid in every American city has a huge amount of unused capacity.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1513799504.jpg

Yeah but some of that is saved for reserves - The rest is typically made up of older units (that are unreliable and pollute a lot). I work in the field, GH85 is 100% right.

That graph is also in KWs. To charge one truck it takes 1+ MW.

Somehow the peak demand is met every day...graph it in Watts, mWatts or GWatts, the demand drops by 1/3 at night almost everywhere.

And if the cost is demand based then it will self level.

In the end the main complaint will be cost.

Yeah because peak demand has not really in years due to energy efficiency programs. Electric cars change that a lot.

Here is a link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-04-25/u-s-power-demand-flatlined-years-ago-and-it-s-hurting-utilities

You are right though, demand does decrease at night. It would not be cost efficient to run peaker plants 24/7. Are you proposing everyone charges their cars at night? Would be interesting how the trucking industry responds. Electric cars will require more natural gas plants (or nuke/pump storage) no matter how you look at it. Also load serving entities will jack up your power bill.

This State too. Huge tax breaks on purchase, but annual licensing is steep. Likely getting the missed sales tax recoupled w/in a decade. I wonder how many EV's will last that long.

I have wondered about long term battery life in electric cars. It uses the same battery cell as a cell phone and usually after 48 to 60 months a cell phone battery is pretty crappy.

There are so many skeletons in the EV closet that no one wants to talk about. -Environmentally, over the life of the vehicle the components and batteries are far worse than combustion engine.
-There is not such thing as a "zero emissions" vehicle-you are just hiding emissions in a power plant somewhere. Increased demand means more need for oil, coal, nuclear (wind & solar are not able to contribute a remote speck of what is needed).
-As stated, the power grid is not even remotely capable of handling the power production increase (no, not everyone can charge only at night).
-When power demands go up, the entire system will have to be improved and that means the utility will increase your bill to pay for the improvements. Business costs go up so you pay more for everything you buy. Homeowners utility bills go up...
-We have no real long term data on how long the batteries will last and environmentally the disposal is going to be a nightmare. If you go the recycling route (and most likely you will be required to do so for the environment), then the cost will go even higher.
-The more complex EVs get, the more cost of repair will go up. DIY will be unthinkable and you will be held hostage to go to the dealer. We have several threads about that joy already.

The list goes on and on.

I predict that there will come a day when technology will be able to do what we dream about today but, until then, don't expect the 90% to be forced to use what only 10% of the world thinks is viable.

^Nice summary!

The vast majority of people will charge at night, additionally batteries are already being used to store base load for discharging during the day. Many places can increase their base output, but there is no demand. Battery storage helps in the regard. Both as a load and as a back-up source.

The source of the electricity simply changes the clean-air math. With nuclear or green energy as the source a gasoline driven car can't be cleaner than electric. For coal the number is closer to 40 mpg; above that a car is cleaner. For he typical mix of power I think I read 55 mpg is the crossover point. Very few people actually achieve 55 mpg.

The vast majority of 'anti' arguments are based on the unsuitability for long trips (which are small percentage of most people's usage) and a 'net environmental' concern that no one has proven either way.

I don't want one. Ever. But they are coming, and lots of people will drive them.

Are you accounting for the energy required to create that $60,000 battery pack? (which has a very finite life, as anyone with a few year old cell phone knows)

And the polution created when producing a huge windmill?

The only thing I see positive is that the polution is moved outside the cities. Environmentally (the whole span!) I THINK the EV is no better then other solutions.

Wind turbines are not a major plus because of environmental concerns with birds and bats, noise pollution if located near where people live (low but can have psychological effects), major acreage needed unless in a hilly location, unreliable output since winds pick up and slow down and, just not enough power to offset the major demands of a modern society.

So guess they will be charging up with solar power I presume? Those solar cells that work on starlight? Or the windmills that work at night when the winds tend to be calm.

I remember seeing a chart on the amount of energy used by the cars and trucks on the road at any moment. It was converted to megawatt hours. It was a lot of energy.

“Long trips” in the context of an EV is a relative term. In the past month I have taken at least five round trip drives that would exceed the range of any EV on the market. Once you get outside of heavy urban driving environments the practicality starts getting very limited for people that don’t have cars dedicated for city use.

Remember that if an EV has a range of 200 miles that means you can only travel 75-85 miles away from home since you need power to get back and a margin for error or a detour.

Well, that's only if you aren't running the air..or heat...or listening to the radio...or have the headlights on. God forbid you need to drive 150 miles on a muggy summer night and you need the radio to keep you awake and alert.

The pending changes in our energy infrastructure resulting from 'battery cost and capacity' appear to be eluding a lot of people here.

It goes way beyond cars. Only the timeline is in doubt, not the outcome.

We Generate our electricity from OTHER sources of power.

Batteries are simply a VERY expensive "fuel tank" for power that has been generated from other sources.

All that "pending changes" are theoretical and about as reliable as Elon Musk production estimates. What's eluding you is that these supposed pending changes will cost big buck to do and YOU will be paying for the equipment, retooling, and system upgrades.
As an example, back around 1970 LILCO promised cheaper power once they built a nuclear plant on Long Island NY. Instead, the LILCO customers had 3% rate increase for 30 years to fund the building and decommissioning of the plant but the power rate never went down one penny.
The promised rate reductions you are wishing for is akin to "I will still respect you in the morning" or, for the USA folks, “If you like your (health care) plan, you can keep your plan,”.

Anyone surprised?

Will the Roadster have "Autopilot" ?

and will it seek out big red fire trucks?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1516685687.jpg

Yikes.

Clearly the Tesla had a BAL of .05.

Edit: I found the driver:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Rodriguez.png

... and they don't last forever regardless of the advertising hype. How many charges before the batteries get tired?

These cares will be true "appliances". I can't see how it would make any sense to keep one longer than 5 years.
That's not a bad thing if you know that going in but don't kid yourself, they'll be just as expensive as owning any gas car in the end. (probably more)

It will be interesting to see what actually happens in the real world.

Having said all that. I think it's only a matter of time before most of us will own a plug in electric car.
And I can't wait to see what MB & Porsche comes up with.

I like how Tesla has pushed the rest of them along.

Another of Musk's promises recounted as the vaporware it always was...

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/29/steve-wozniak-i-dont-believe-anything-elon-musk-or-tesla-says/

The new all electric Porsche looks cool. I just wonder how much the German vehicles will cost without the billions of tax subsidies Tesla received. They will have to be priced competitively, at least within the market price range.

Zero doubt, every major manufacturer world wide will be bringing out an plug in electric, and hybrids. There is a place for both, just not in my garage.

TO be clear, the ONLY competitive advantage of electric cars is found in the bureaucratic cost of petrol cars.

That is, with the CAFE standards ever tightening, the sales of electric cars buy the manufacturers bureaucratic credits. But on their own, electric cars are much less efficient machines to manufacture. --electric cars consume massive resources to build, and then use motive power often generated by carbon-based fuels. This is essentially gaming the CAFE standards; laundering the massive inefficiencies.

In related news, the competition is gearing up, I mean charging up.

Cummins acquires Johnson Matthey’s automotive battery business
Posted February 12, 2018
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/cummins-acquires-johnson-mattheys-automotive-battery-business/
https://chargedevs.com/wp-content/up...g-1-1000px.jpg

AND the massive amount of money the feds throw at you to buy one. When that well runs dry it will be game over.

Yea, oil isn't subsidized. :rolleyes:

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/6/16428458/us-energy-subsidies
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Fk-z...comparison.jpg

lg chem batt technology will allow for approx. 3600 full discharges for the life of the batt.

Being taxed less ≠ subsidized.

Imagine if every day I punch you in the stomach and take $10 from your wallet. Then I give $5 to a friend. I do this every day for years. Then one day I only take $8, I still give my friend $5, and he screams: "No fair! You're GIVING him money!"

You are wasting your breath. I've tried to explain this to him (and the others here who think "big oil" takes more subsidies than renewables) several times. They are simply uninformed and apparently like to stay that way.

Botom line: Renewables as a whole get WAY more in direct (cash) AND indirect (tax) subsidies than "big oil" has ever received. They also seem to forget that "big oil" actually pays taxes, to the tune of billions of dollars.

Some very interesting ramblings. There's a nice video on this page, worth watching:

https://www.engadget.com/2018/03/11/the-church-of-elon-musk/

If social is the big "thing" today, it appears that AI might be the big thing tomorrow. I'd like to delve into it more. Seems fascinating.

Musk rambles on about government on Mars, too. Something for everyone :)

Does he ever sleep?