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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ferraripete (Post 9926619)

lg chem batt technology will allow for approx. 3600 full discharges for the life of the batt.

So if you charge the batteries daily you should get at lest 10 years from a pack. (Mostly partial charges)
I hope that's true but I suspect in the real world they wont last that long.

Musk's businesses have a habit of quoting the limits imparted by theoretical physics as the actual performance of the products. In practice, the performance of Musk's products rarely match the promises.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr (Post 9957798)

So if you charge the batteries daily you should get at lest 10 years from a pack. (Mostly partial charges)
I hope that's true but I suspect in the real world they wont last that long.

Even with the latest batt. tech, there is no way that a pack is going to yield the same performance/capacity for that long and/or that many (3600) cycles, especially with the high-performance/high-drain cells in question.
I would guess a packs usable life-span is closer to 1/4 of that number. All sorts of things kill modern L-Ion cells/packs, with heat and over-discharging being the primary culprits.
If the cells aren't balanced properly the whole pack can be bricked, or worse (thermal runaway), well before their life-cycle is up as well.

Also, with age/charging cycles, the internal resistance of the pack increases. This reduces performance/capacity and requires more time/energy to reach a full charge.
The internal resistance can also spike or rapidly increase with just ONE over-discharge event.

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion (Post 9957962)

Exactly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr (Post 9897052)

These cares will be true "appliances". I can't see how it would make any sense to keep one longer than 5 years.

How did you come up with 5 years? A lot of plug-in electrics (not all) have 8-10 year, 100 -150k warranties.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 9959044)

How did you come up with 5 years? A lot of plug-in electrics (not all) have 8-10 year, 100 -150k warranties.

Quick head maths only. No real data but... After 5 years, considering the initial purchase price the cost of ownership starts to rise sharply because the car starts to plummet in value.

You either dump it then or keep driving it until it falls apart.

A buddy of mine is on his second model S. (He also owns a 991, a 986S, an Elise, and a CTS-V.) He buys Teslas because they are everything he wants wrapped up in one brand: green virtue signaling while showing off at the same time. He says that the fit and finish is far below any other car he's owned (and this is a guy who owns a Lotus). His first one he had to carefully hand wash because one of the doors leaked--a problem Tesla refused to acknowledge let alone do anything about. (I get the sense that Tesla, like Ferrari, counts on its owners to be true believers in the brand and to overlook most issues because the are "driving something special"). I know his new one has some sort of weird issue as well. He says that after five years there are so many small issues with the cars and the range has dropped so much that they aren't worth keeping. (He NEVER uses superchargers, and very carefully watches the charge remaining and only charges when necessary to minimize the number of charge/discharge cycles.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr (Post 9959277)

Quick head maths only. No real data but...

That's what i thought.

The biggest reason plug in electrics lose their value is that they are constantly being improved. Every new generation has significantly more range and capability than the last. There is nothing wrong with the older cars, they just aren't as advanced and therefor not as desirable as the newer ones. ICE cars get some incremental changes when new models come out, but PEHVs make quantum leaps.
If you are faced with taking a depreciation hit if you trade in your 5 year old Impala and realize the new one isn't that much better, the 5 year old car retains more value relative to the new one.

On a side-note about Tesla...
Our local Meijer Stores have installed 10 new Tesla charging stations in their parking lots. I never see a Tesla using one. I asked a store employee about them and he told me they are free for Tesla owners to use anytime. (it's a 24hr store)
I drive a 38mpg four cyl gas car...where is my free gasoline??:confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion (Post 9959408)

Tesla is pretty consistently at the bottom of the list for reliability and build quality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 9959722)

Tesla is pretty consistently at the bottom of the list for reliability and build quality.

At least one owner got so fed up with his that he strapped a big ass rocket to it and lit the fuse.

Quote:

Originally Posted by svandamme (Post 9959726)

at least one owner got so fed up with his that he strapped a big ass rocket to it and lit the fuse.

lol!

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 9959457)

I don't have a lot of experience in this area, but I suspect there is more to it than that. While spending a few days in LA I rented a tesla sedan privately from an individual. That car was about 3 years old, and after a few days driving it became evident you would be lucky to get half the advertised range of the car out of a full battery. When talking with the owner, he said you could almost track the decline, that every full charge from the first yielded slightly less mileage. And that it also never made advertised range in the first place even from new.
An impressive car in lots of ways, no way would I buy one.

I live right near Tesla. Like 10-15 minutes.

I have neighbors who work there. And plenty of people in my network work there. Technical and business roles.

I got to hear a talk by one of their C-Level guys at a college alumni function last Fall.

I think the train is on the tracks. Things are happening really fast with EV's and autonomous vehicle technology. Really fast.

Heck we even have one of the world's experts on autonomous vehicle tech as a participant in these forums.

It is helpful to remember that the world isn't just CA, or NY, or Kansas, and that in some parts of the world, the death of ICE is coming like a freight train.

Every time I see my neighbor get out of her X and use her phone to park it via remote control in her narrow garage, I am reminded that things are happening fast. She is an engineer and works at Tesla.

We will see what happens.

I remember the first Iphone.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/tesla-manufacturing-high-volume-of-flawed-parts-employees.html

Quote:

Luxury automaker Tesla is manufacturing a surprisingly high ratio of flawed parts and vehicles, according to several current and former employees, leading to more rework and repairs than can be contained at its factory in Fremont, California.

Tesla's future as a mass-market carmaker hinges on efficient, automated production of the Model 3, which more than 400,000 people have already reserved, paying $1,000 refundable fees to do so. Musk said in July 2017 that Tesla would probably be making 20,000 Model 3s per month by December.

The company then later downgraded those expectations. It currently says it will make 2,500 per week by the end of this month and 5,000 per week by the end of June.

One current Tesla engineer estimated that 40 percent of the parts made or received at its Fremont factory require rework. The need for reviews of parts coming off the line, and rework, has contributed to Model 3 delays, the engineer said.

Another current employee from Tesla's Fremont factory said the company's defect rate is so high that it's hard to hit production targets. Inability to hit the numbers is in turn hurting employee morale.

To deal with a backlog of flawed parts and vehicles, said these current and former employees, Tesla has brought in teams of technicians and engineers from its service centers and remanufacturing lines to help with rework and repairs on site in Fremont.

They also said that sometimes the luxury EV maker has taken the unusual measure of sending flawed or damaged parts from Fremont to its remanufacturing facility in Lathrop, California, about 50 miles away, instead of fixing those parts "in-line."

The current and former employees declined to be named because they are not authorized to talk to the press.

Tesla flatly denies that its remanufacturing teams engage in rework. "Our remanufacturing team does not 'rework' cars," a spokesperson said. The company said the employees might be conflating rework and remanufacturing. It also said every vehicle is subjected to rigorous quality control involving more than 500 inspections and tests.

Lean manufacturing specialist Matt Girvan, founder of MAG Consulting, said: "Even during what is considered 'launch' mode, if a company is selling its cars to customers, it should not be experiencing large amounts of rework. This speaks to an internal quality issue that is on a magnitude that is not normal for most car manufacturers."

Tesla said that cars coming off the end of the line are reviewed in detail in an effort to "produce perfect cars for every customer." It said that most calibrations made at the end-of-line inspection are minor and resolved in minutes. Tesla also said that the efficiency of production has improved significantly: "Whereas before it took three shifts with considerable overtime to produce our target annual production of 100,000 Model S and X vehicles, now it can be done with only two shifts and minimal overtime."

Tesla has acknowledged problems with production of batteries, but said it is still on track to meet its target of 2,500 Model 3s per week by the end of March, and 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of the second quarter.

Over the weekend, Tesla revealed that it halted its Model 3 production lines in February to give the company time to make improvements.

A company spokesperson said temporary downtime for equipment maintenance and commissioning is "common in production ramps like this." She said that there may very well be other periods of downtime on the line in coming months.

Tesla shares fell more 4 percent on Wednesday in a mixed market.

Remanufacturing and rework

In general, engineers involved in remanufacturing will evaluate and repair used vehicle parts, making them as good as new. Remanufactured parts usually go into certified pre-owned vehicles or into vehicles awaiting repairs.

While most car companies do remanufacturing to some degree, the majority outsource this work or leave it to parts suppliers today.

Tesla is different from most other carmakers because it's "vertically integrated" – meaning it owns and operates its dealerships, service centers and factories.

There isn't a big network of suppliers who can make or refurbish the parts that go into a Tesla, or any other electric vehicle, says Xavier Mosquet, a senior partner with Boston Consulting Group in Detroit. For those reasons, it's not surprising that Tesla runs "reman" lines of its own.

However, current and former employees say that Tesla leverages its remanufacturing group to deal with new car production problems, which is unusual. Tesla denies this is happening.

Job descriptions show that remanufacturing at Tesla includes a much broader set of responsibilities than refurbishing used parts.

One recent listing said candidates should have the "ability to identify and analyze new failures [sic] modes from both the field and manufacturing lines," suggesting that Tesla's remanufacturing line deals with parts coming off its own assembly lines.

Another for a team process leader in the "Vehicle Reman Center" in Fremont, California, where Tesla makes its new cars, said the candidate would "lead the Value delivery system created to repair and remanufacture Tesla electric vehicles," and "lead daily operations...on large volume, electric vehicle repair and reconditioning value streams."

Tesla claims that these job listings reflect the fact that remanufacturing experts evaluate and analyze a wide range of factors to figure out why a particular part failed in the field. These experts then sometimes feed this information back to other groups, including manufacturing groups.

Tesla also told CNBC its remanufacturing group included only 40 employees. However, at least one Tesla employee profile on LinkedIn references a team within the remanufacturing department that is comprised of 130 employees.

Mag Consulting's Girvan evaluated Tesla's remanufacturing job descriptions on sites including Tesla's careers page, LinkedIn and Glassdoor.

He said, "Problems are unavoidable in any factory. 'Rework' does happen…These listings speak to what is probably a large amount of product that has either not been built to specification or that has been built to an incorrect specification where the error wasn't found until later."

In autos, there is a widespread philosophy of "right the first time," Girvan added. Usually, automakers spend a lot of time on planning and prototypes before going into full production. One reason for a cautious approach is that too much scrap, and a high portion of parts that need rework, can eat into the already-challenging profit margins of auto assembly.

Tesla's future as a mass-market carmaker hinges on efficient, automated production of the Model 3, which more than 400,000 people have already reserved, paying $1,000 refundable fees to do so. Musk said in July 2017 that Tesla would probably be making 20,000 Model 3s per month by December.

The company then later downgraded those expectations. It currently says it will make 2,500 per week by the end of this month and 5,000 per week by the end of June.

One current Tesla engineer estimated that 40 percent of the parts made or received at its Fremont factory require rework. The need for reviews of parts coming off the line, and rework, has contributed to Model 3 delays, the engineer said.

Another current employee from Tesla's Fremont factory said the company's defect rate is so high that it's hard to hit production targets. Inability to hit the numbers is in turn hurting employee morale.

To deal with a backlog of flawed parts and vehicles, said these current and former employees, Tesla has brought in teams of technicians and engineers from its service centers and remanufacturing lines to help with rework and repairs on site in Fremont.

They also said that sometimes the luxury EV maker has taken the unusual measure of sending flawed or damaged parts from Fremont to its remanufacturing facility in Lathrop, California, about 50 miles away, instead of fixing those parts "in-line."

The current and former employees declined to be named because they are not authorized to talk to the press.

Tesla flatly denies that its remanufacturing teams engage in rework. "Our remanufacturing team does not 'rework' cars," a spokesperson said. The company said the employees might be conflating rework and remanufacturing. It also said every vehicle is subjected to rigorous quality control involving more than 500 inspections and tests.

Lean manufacturing specialist Matt Girvan, founder of MAG Consulting, said: "Even during what is considered 'launch' mode, if a company is selling its cars to customers, it should not be experiencing large amounts of rework. This speaks to an internal quality issue that is on a magnitude that is not normal for most car manufacturers."

Tesla said that cars coming off the end of the line are reviewed in detail in an effort to "produce perfect cars for every customer." It said that most calibrations made at the end-of-line inspection are minor and resolved in minutes. Tesla also said that the efficiency of production has improved significantly: "Whereas before it took three shifts with considerable overtime to produce our target annual production of 100,000 Model S and X vehicles, now it can be done with only two shifts and minimal overtime."

Tesla has acknowledged problems with production of batteries, but said it is still on track to meet its target of 2,500 Model 3s per week by the end of March, and 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of the second quarter.

Continued...

Quote:

Over the weekend, Tesla revealed that it halted its Model 3 production lines in February to give the company time to make improvements.

A company spokesperson said temporary downtime for equipment maintenance and commissioning is "common in production ramps like this." She said that there may very well be other periods of downtime on the line in coming months.

Tesla shares fell more 4 percent on Wednesday in a mixed market.
Remanufacturing and rework.

In general, engineers involved in remanufacturing will evaluate and repair used vehicle parts, making them as good as new. Remanufactured parts usually go into certified pre-owned vehicles or into vehicles awaiting repairs.

While most car companies do remanufacturing to some degree, the majority outsource this work or leave it to parts suppliers today.

Tesla is different from most other carmakers because it's "vertically integrated" – meaning it owns and operates its dealerships, service centers and factories.

There isn't a big network of suppliers who can make or refurbish the parts that go into a Tesla, or any other electric vehicle, says Xavier Mosquet, a senior partner with Boston Consulting Group in Detroit. For those reasons, it's not surprising that Tesla runs "reman" lines of its own.

However, current and former employees say that Tesla leverages its remanufacturing group to deal with new car production problems, which is unusual. Tesla denies this is happening.

Job descriptions show that remanufacturing at Tesla includes a much broader set of responsibilities than refurbishing used parts.

One recent listing said candidates should have the "ability to identify and analyze new failures [sic] modes from both the field and manufacturing lines," suggesting that Tesla's remanufacturing line deals with parts coming off its own assembly lines.

Another for a team process leader in the "Vehicle Reman Center" in Fremont, California, where Tesla makes its new cars, said the candidate would "lead the Value delivery system created to repair and remanufacture Tesla electric vehicles," and "lead daily operations...on large volume, electric vehicle repair and reconditioning value streams."

Tesla claims that these job listings reflect the fact that remanufacturing experts evaluate and analyze a wide range of factors to figure out why a particular part failed in the field. These experts then sometimes feed this information back to other groups, including manufacturing groups.

Tesla also told CNBC its remanufacturing group included only 40 employees. However, at least one Tesla employee profile on LinkedIn references a team within the remanufacturing department that is comprised of 130 employees.

Mag Consulting's Girvan evaluated Tesla's remanufacturing job descriptions on sites including Tesla's careers page, LinkedIn and Glassdoor.

He said, "Problems are unavoidable in any factory. 'Rework' does happen…These listings speak to what is probably a large amount of product that has either not been built to specification or that has been built to an incorrect specification where the error wasn't found until later."

In autos, there is a widespread philosophy of "right the first time," Girvan added. Usually, automakers spend a lot of time on planning and prototypes before going into full production. One reason for a cautious approach is that too much scrap, and a high portion of parts that need rework, can eat into the already-challenging profit margins of auto assembly.

CNBC shared Girvan's analysis with Tesla. The company wrote, in response:

"Remanufacturing is not unique to Tesla, it is something that other manufacturers do too. Remanufacturing involves taking older parts and reconditioning them so they can be used for cars when they eventually come in for service. Rather than making new parts from scratch, this is good for the environment and if done well, is equally good for the customer. Any 'expert' claiming there is something unusual about this or that it has something to do with the quality of cars that come off a production line is either very confused or just completely wrong."

Tesla did not disclose its "first pass yields" to CNBC.This number indicates what portion of a manufacturer's new cars were created using standard processes, not requiring the extra effort and expense of rework.

At least, Girvan said, "It's better to catch a defect in the factory and fix it -- far better than something occurring in the field involving a customer's vehicle."

Regarding the overall quality of its cars coming off the line, Tesla issued the following statement:

Our goal is to produce perfect cars for every customer. Therefore, we review every vehicle for even the smallest refinement. We care about even the smallest imperfection like a slight paint gloss texture or a wheel alignment check. We then feed these improvements back to production in a pursuit of perfection. This is reflected in the overall efficiency of the factory, which has improved dramatically. For example, the number of labor hours needed to complete a Model S or Model X vehicle has decreased. Whereas before, it took three shifts with considerable overtime to produce our target annual production of 100,000 Model S and X vehicles, now it can be done with only two shifts and minimal overtime. Nothing speaks to this more than the fact that Tesla has the highest customer satisfaction levels and the highest percentage of customers who say that their next car will be a Tesla in the entire global auto industry.

In terms of the line stoppage in February, Tesla issued this statement:

Our Model 3 production plan includes periods of planned downtime in both Fremont and Gigafactory 1. These periods are used to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gordner (Post 9961185)

When talking with the owner, he said you could almost track the decline, that every full charge from the first yielded slightly less mileage.

Bullsh - it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mahler9th (Post 9961389)

Things are happening really fast with EV's and autonomous vehicle technology. Really fast.

100% agree

Was interviewed last year for a design role on an autonomous flying car project, just couldn't get my head around the concept and now working on my 2nd EV race car.

The pace of technology development is on a very steep curve, range and weight are the biggest engineering challenges but both will be overcome in not much time

Drove my first EV only recently, as a die hard internal combustion groupie I was surprised it only took one drive in a BMW I3 for me to be converted. My next car will more than likely be an EV, love the look of the Honda Urban EV

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Ahab Jr (Post 9961508)

....love the look of the Honda Urban EV

Ha... looks almost exactly like the first gen VW Rabbitt...

Looks good.

Tesla on my companys parking lot.
The trunk is not closing correctly, the door handles are not pulled back.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1521105535.JPG

Someone mentioned the first iPhone. Yes, but Tesla is not a newbie anymore. And I dont want to get used to this bad quality.

how old is that one?
I could understand that from the 2012-2013 models
To a lesser extend from the 2014-2016 models.

But 2017 and 2018 should have at least seen some benefit from 5 model years worth of Quality Control feedback into the production lines...

This one is about 6 months old.

So they are ugly on the outside
ugly on the inside
and poorly made

http://winningateverything.com/files.../WAE_main3.jpg

Quote:

Originally Posted by svandamme (Post 9961926)

So they are ugly on the outside
ugly on the inside
and poorly made

http://winningateverything.com/files.../WAE_main3.jpg

You forgot expensive and heavily subsidized.

I wonder how many new products Tesla has to roll out this week?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/27/moodys-downgrades-tesla-credit-rating-on-model-3-production-delays.html

Quote:

Moody's downgraded Tesla's credit ratings Tuesday and changed its outlook to negative from stable, citing "significant shortfall" in the Model 3 production rate and a tight financial situation.

The credit ratings agency also said the electric car maker will likely need to raise more money in the near future to meet its cash needs and maintain its expected pace of expansion.

Moody's lowered its corporate family rating on Tesla to B3 from B2 and downgraded its rating on the company's senior notes to Caa1 from B3. The speculative grade liquidity rating was cut to SGL-4 from SGL-3.

Tesla declined to comment on the Moody's downgrade. S&P has a negative B rating on Tesla and a negative outlook, as of April 2017.

Tesla shares fell 2 percent in premarket trading Wednesday.

I suspect the fact that Tesla can no longer expect to be bailed out to ensure its survival is probably a prime concern.

Funny, Musk got a new pay package right before the bond downgrade. Coincidence?

New Tesla pay package could make Elon Musk the richest man alive - Mar. 21, 2018

2012-04/2016 is only 123 000 cars???

let's take 100 grand average selling price = 12 300 000 000 over 4 years.
deduct R&D costs
materials
energy required to build
37,543 employees ( low estimate 50K a year average cost) = 1 877 150 000 / year
distribution cost
after sales service

Sure it improved since
Q1 2017 25000
Q2 2017 22000
Q3 2017 26150
Q4 2017 29870
Total 103020 in 2017, sure it's better then all pre 2016
But 12 billion revenue for that many cars... No wonder they are loosing 2 billion a year.

Why would anybody invest if they can only make and sell 250 cars a day? after 5 years.
And with bad build quality.

Once the big car manufacturers kick EV into high gear, Tesla will collapse onto it's own pile of debt.

Tesla has known about the power steering problem for a while, yet waited until after the market closed for the quarter to make it public. If you don’t think this was deliberate or don’t think Tesla is in real trouble (not due to the recall, that’s a blip), you are not paying attention. I sold all of my Tesla stock last November. I attribute those continuing to ignore all of the blatant signs of failure to the same head in the sand thinking some people had in 2007 about the housing bubble.

IMO, Musk’s best move right now is to sell the company to the highest bidder...assuming there are any. Of course, my advice is worth what you paid for it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mreid (Post 9985028)

IMO, Musk’s best move right now is to sell the company to the highest bidder...assuming there are any. Of course, my advice is worth what you paid for it.

The stock is still too highly valued, more than GM! I believe this is due to there being only a small amount on the open market. But that can cut both ways! If even small groups dump the stock, it could crash it.

I also think buying Tesla outright would be a trap. I think the media has given Musk a pass on serious issues because he's an "innovator" or whatever. (And he donates to the right candidates and ascribes to the right causes to keep the media sated.) I doubt the next owners would be afforded that luxury. They'd essentially be buying mountains of blame, at outrageously inflated prices.

Imagine if GM bought Tesla. Let's ignore for a second how they would get the money to make that happen as Tesla is valued at way more than GM. Every new problem that props up the media would paint as GM's fault. There'd probably be a slew of announcements shortly after acquisition--as GM would feel compelled to report things within legally-mandated timeframes. The media would probably paint the whole thing as "GM destroyed Tesla", even if all of the issues predated GM's acquisition.

One good thing that may come from Tesla, after it fails, is that it may finally kill these kinds of subsidies for a generation. (Well, one can hope.) At the very least, it will finally stop the subsidies.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mreid (Post 9985028)

...
IMO, Musk’s best move right now is to sell the company to the highest bidder....

Or... He could just give it away, like he did with Tesla's (the car co's) patents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion (Post 9985150)

... I think the media has given Musk a pass on serious issues because he's an "innovator" or whatever. (And he donates to the right candidates and ascribes to the right causes to keep the media sated.) ....

Yeah, I think he's getting wobbly there too.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1522679884.jpg

But perhaps I'm underestimating the press' ability to stay with a good <strike>con</strike> Story.

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911 (Post 9985196)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1522679884.jpg

But perhaps I'm underestimating the press' ability to stay with a good <strike>con</strike> Story.

He didn't even try to send a car to Mars. Perhaps memegenerator.net could try to keep up with the story.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 9985979)

He didn't even try to send a car to Mars. Perhaps memegenerator.net could try to keep up with the story.

You are right. It wasn't even that noble. AFAIK, it was just a test launch with a "dummy" payload consisting of one of his roadsters, now tumbling aimlessly through the cosmos...

Seriously Patric, that's the hair you're going to split?

While I posted that to reflect some other's reaction to Musk, I do remember reading how on such & such date the car will pass mars... And thinking, Mars already has an electric car. It's been driving around and sending back pictures for years.

Now if I made that 'meme' it would talk about the use of rocket fuel to decelerate rockets on a planet with thick coughCHUTEcough atmosphere. That was cool as hell to watch, but not exactly the most energy efficient way of doing things. Of course, half a century ago, when NASA landed that way on the moon, they didn't have much choice on method.

The bigger point here is that Tesla is NOT a 'green' company. Electric cars are NOT some panacea ..