Oh Wow...one bar patron!

[Sooner or later]

For the 5th straight week US covid deaths decline. US cases flattened this week. South Dakota deaths stable at....one....

Webb, there is good news out there.

[Sooner or later]

I apologize. I edited the two previous posts.

Is the 5 week decline in US daily covid deaths a good thing? Is South Dakota staying stable at 1 covid death a day a positive?

[RWebb]

I removed my prev. post.

The question is how good is it, not whether it is 'good' or not.



Here is some fun from economists, not epidemiologists:

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

[RSBob]

Ihttps://www.twincities.com/2020/09/08/researchers-sturgis-rally-a-superspreader-event-linked-to-266k-coronavirus-cases/
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota could be considered a super-spreader event for COVID-19 and should be linked to 266,000 cases nationwide at a cost of $12.2 billion, researchers say in a recently released paper.

The researchers from San Diego State University’s Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies published a preliminary version of the paper late last week with the IZA Institute for Labor Economics. The paper is based on anonymized cellphone location tracking data and is the first known research to estimate the COVID-19 case spread and public health cost of the rally in Sturgis, S.D.

The 10-day motorcycle rally, which ended Aug. 16, is associated with both local and national surges in COVID-19 cases, particularly in those counties with the highest participation percentage the researchers found.

“We … conclude that local and nationwide contagion from this event was substantial,” the researchers said.

Gee, never saw this coming... one guy in a bar... meh. FOX is carrying the story too.

[RWebb]

more than a single guy in bar, tho that is possible


I wouldn't take the economists' study as gospel, but it is interesting

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by RWebb

more than a single guy in bar, tho that is possible


I wouldn't take the economists' study as gospel, but it is interesting

Agreed, but I'm not sure it is really all that "interesting". What I do find more interesting is some folks's reactions to it. They seem unusually eager to accept it as the definitive "truth", as some sort of an "aha!" moment, eager to say "I told you so!".

People are funny like that. Very eager to accept any news that fits their confirmation biases. Equally eager to reject news that does not, of course. We will see folks abandon all reason and common sense in either case. In this particular case, there are a number of issues that should cause us to take this "study" with a grain of salt.

The Sturgis Rally only officially ended about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks ago. We are still well within the "incubation period" of those who would have truly picked this up at that event. And 2 1/2 - 3 weeks to simply compile the sheer volume of data associated with tracking even a small percentage of attendees, much less process all of it, crunch the numbers, review, refine, etc. etc. - that would be some mighty impressive work.

And, in fact, we have been told on a number of other occasions wherein we supposedly witnessed such "super spreader" events that, even months later, it was "too soon to tell" if they had, in fact, resulted in such. We have been cautioned regarding these other events to not "jump to conclusions". We have been told the data was not definitive, that it would take months (if not years) of careful study, etc. Which is all quite reasonable.

And now we have, if it proves to have any validity whatsoever, what would have to be the absolute, all-time world record for having conducted and reviewed any sort of a study involving this many data points. Yet there are those who don't even question that. Because they so desperately want this to be true.

Much like gleefully exclaiming "Sweden did it wrong!!!". We see where that is now headed... We are years from being able to intelligently "de-brief" on any of this. Who was "right", who was "wrong", what really contributed to the spread or helped to stop it. Far too many variables, far too much data - and, for now, far too much emotion. And politics.

[RSBob]

It’s called confirmation bias. However seeing all those people together in close quarters, it doesn’t take a rocket surgeon, based on several previous outbreaks (even in Wa state), to deduce this would be fuel for yet another.

As for my thread on Sweden, it was a ironic rebuttal to the unequivocal comment that they did it so right when the data when the thread was started was so limited and the long term outcomes of their decisions were far from known. In other words, it was a sarcastic response, just as ridiculously unequivocal. Like you said, throw out a line, watch the hook get set and the fun begins.

Many of my responses on this board are a direct reaction to claims not based on reputable science or even pseudoscience but thinking which confirms their bias, like wearing masks are a joke, which I know you do not subscribe.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by Jeff Higgins

The Sturgis Rally only officially ended about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks ago.

But it started 4 1/2 weeks ago.

Some attendees will show up a few days early.

Then there is exhibitor and infrastructure set up.

More like it really started 5-6 weeks ago.

[speeder]

Common sense, (if there still exists such a thing), would tell you that in the middle of a pandemic w a virus that spreads in the air, a gathering like the Sturgis rally would be a guaranteed super-spreader event. We have plenty of documented, hard evidence of super-spreader events involving massively smaller gatherings of people coming from various locations and hanging out, mostly in the form of family reunions and birthday parties, etc.

I agree that it seems a little suspect that they could put a number on the infections from it so quickly but two things to remember; economists are usually the best source of non-politically biased information from data and that the length of time since the gathering is more than enough to see primary and secondary infections. The evidence seems to show that most people show symptoms, (if they get sick), pretty quickly after exposure. Those 2 week windows are really for extreme exceptions.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by pavulon

How a medical condition can become so politicized that it's not worth talking about is beyond the pale. The world is fooked.

I agree and would take it further to say that I cannot imagine having some political view that makes me completely ignore science when it interferes w my belief system. Especially when it can cost me my life.

I can’t imagine being so under the spell of that thinking that going to Sturgis this year sounds like a good idea. For what? They hold it every year and it’s the same every year...it’s not like it’s some once-in-a-lifetime event...I just don’t get it. All so that you can look macho and tough, not wearing a mask and carrying on like nothing is wrong?

I know that a lot of people say that it only kills old people, (total BS), as an older guy, I can tell you that time gets more valuable when you have less of it left. If you’re middle aged or older and in good health, why on fking earth would you risk very soon death to go to massive gathering of people that happens every fking year?

Americans are whining like biches over minor inconveniences and canceled events this year. It’s one year, for chrissakes, out of maybe an 80 year life, (or more)? What a country this is.

[Sooner or later]

I would guess that Sturgis retailers get half their annual profit during this one rally.

[pavulon]

Maybe. But a lot of the crap not sold there this year would be no real loss to anyone running a legitimate business.

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I would guess that Sturgis retailers get half their annual profit during this one rally.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Here’s my perpetual question....what’s the end game? What if an effective vaccine is never developed? Or an effective treatment? Government control of our lives forever? Ineffective masks forever? Many of you forget that when the government takes our rights they rarely give them back. And in the last few months the government has taken away a good chunk of constitutional rights with no sign of giving them back anytime soon. So I’d think long and hard if your fear of an overhyped pandemic is worthy of giving up your rights as an American. Because if you think that’s not in play you just aren’t paying attention.

[mattdavis11]

I'm wondering how many of those that have passed away, will somehow cast a ballot Nov. 3.

[pavulon]

Really tired of reading and hearing about people’s’ rights while the same people avoid any discussions of responsibilities. It’s never been a one way street but you’d not know it today.

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Here’s my perpetual question....what’s the end game? What if an effective vaccine is never developed? Or an effective treatment? Government control of our lives forever? Ineffective masks forever? Many of you forget that when the government takes our rights they rarely give them back. And in the last few months the government has taken away a good chunk of constitutional rights with no sign of giving them back anytime soon. So I’d think long and hard if your fear of an overhyped pandemic is worthy of giving up your rights as an American. Because if you think that’s not in play you just aren’t paying attention.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by pavulon

Really tired of reading and hearing about people’s’ rights while the same people avoid any discussions of responsibilities. It’s never been a one way street but you’d not know it today.

Do tell. What are my responsibilities according to you?

[Pazuzu]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I would guess that Sturgis retailers get half their annual profit during this one rally.

It's bad business to base half of your annual income on one long weekend event...And I don't see you crying for all of the other businesses that have lost half of their annual income because the entire social economy has essentially been frozen. Movie theaters. Bars. Dining establishments. Beach umbrella rental places. Strippers. Travel agents. Casinos.


I went to a wake last week for a friend (he didn't die from COVID). It was an Irish wake, at a bar. After 2 hours, there were 100+ people crammed outside (to be safe), no masks, drinking, carousing, hugging, crying, sharing food, clinking glasses, etc. Even the most conservative estimate would say that there was at least one person there who was actively and powerfully shedding virus.

I don't want to, but I expect that a few people I know will come down with it in 2 weeks, and maybe someone I know gets knocked out by it.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Pazuzu

It's bad business to base half of your annual income on one long weekend event...And I don't see you crying for all of the other businesses that have lost half of their annual income because the entire social economy has essentially been frozen. Movie theaters. Bars. Dining establishments. Beach umbrella rental places. Strippers. Travel agents. Casinos.


I went to a wake last week for a friend (he didn't die from COVID). It was an Irish wake, at a bar. After 2 hours, there were 100+ people crammed outside (to be safe), no masks, drinking, carousing, hugging, crying, sharing food, clinking glasses, etc. Even the most conservative estimate would say that there was at least one person there who was actively and powerfully shedding virus.

I don't want to, but I expect that a few people I know will come down with it in 2 weeks, and maybe someone I know gets knocked out by it.

I damn sure have been complaining about loss of small business all across the country. Wal Mart and Amazon are killing it while small business is being decimated all across the country We will be seeing personal, business, city, and state budgets busted and on the verge bankruptcy. I have shown unemployment rates by state.

US deaths have been on decline for 5 consecutive weeks. South Dakota deaths have been at 1 per day for weeks. It appears that South Dakota cases have peaked and are on the decline. US total cases have been on decline for 5 weeks until this week where they have been flat.

We can't continue the current path of economic destruction.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I damn sure have been complaining about loss of small business all across the country. Wal Mart and Amazon are killing it while small business is being decimated all across the country We will be seeing personal, business, city, and state budgets busted and on the verge bankruptcy. I have shown unemployment rates by state.

US deaths have been on decline for 5 consecutive weeks. South Dakota deaths have been at 1 per day for weeks. It appears that South Dakota cases have peaked and are on the decline. US total cases have been on decline for 5 weeks until this week where they have been flat.

We can't continue the current path of economic destruction.

Ditto. I have been posting about this travesty for months. Businesses failing because the government hasn’t allowed them to operate.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Here’s my perpetual question....what’s the end game? What if an effective vaccine is never developed? Or an effective treatment? Government control of our lives forever? Ineffective masks forever? Many of you forget that when the government takes our rights they rarely give them back. And in the last few months the government has taken away a good chunk of constitutional rights with no sign of giving them back anytime soon. So I’d think long and hard if your fear of an overhyped pandemic is worthy of giving up your rights as an American. Because if you think that’s not in play you just aren’t paying attention.

The end game wrt Covid19 is that it will run its course and without a vaccine or a population intelligent enough to take measures to stem its transmission, it could continue killing people for 2 years. Who knows. The USA had basically two options at the beginning of the pandemic, either decide that the economy was more important than the health and lives of its citizens and remain completely open or shut down everything and have people quarantine for a couple months to squash it, like other countries successfully did. Unfortunately, we did neither and that’s why it’s been such a disaster here. I would argue that it’s been horrible, negligent leadership at the top and also among governors who insisted on reopening too quickly or not enacting temporary measures to stop the spread.

What part of the U.S. Constitution forbids government from taking measures such as closing businesses temporarily in a public health crisis? Don’t spend too much time looking for it, it’s not there. In fact, our government could take much more drastic measures than what has been done without running afoul of the constitution. That’s a fake argument that you’ve been fed. Probably by the same people who told you that only 6000 people have died from Covid19. Maybe check w a legitimate information source once in a while, just for the hell of it?